This is a guest post by University of California, Davis political scientist Ben Highton. As we described earlier this week, our Senate forecasting model gives the Republican a decent shot at taking back the Senate in the 2014 midterm. In large part, that is because conditions in the country don’t favor the Democrats. President Obama […]
If you actually read through some of the paper that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee is putting out, you’ll start to get the impression that the Democrats have stopped trying to take back the House this year. Or at least they’ve got some management problems, because they’ve clearly let go of whatever copy editor was responsible for making sure the DCCC doesn’t blatantly contradict itself | Read More »
A subtle change has occurred in The House of Representatives. Some Democrats and some Republicans have decided to back away from the pork barrel one last final time. This happens every two years and usually doesn’t inspire much in the way of notice. Yet to see which Democrats have decided or may be deciding to call it a career is to finally have some hope | Read More »
Earlier today, the House passed the Farm/Food Stamp bill boondoggle. Sadly, only 63 Republicans opposed it. The bill locks in Obama’s food stamp regime, creates and expands numerous Soviet-style agriculture subsidies and conservation regulations, and authorizes more spending on the biofuels fiasco. House Republicans got rolled in the conference committee by Senate Democrats, yet almost 75% of the conference dutifully followed leadership. Click here for | Read More »
A new Washington Post-ABC News poll finds that only 37 percent of Americans are confident that President Obama will make the right decisions for the country’s future, while 63 percent are not. According to the Washington Post, those numbers are the mirror image of what they were when Obama was sworn into office in 2009 and lower than at any other time the question was asked by the | Read More »
Lynn Vavreck and I have a new piece at Pacific Standard that looks at the state of data and analytics in campaigns. Part of the argument is that data and analytics have made huge strides, most visible in the impressive work of the Obama campaign. We cite several examples of the Obama campaign’s innovations in […]
My Post colleague Dan Balz has some very interesting reporting from Democratic and Republican strategists. Both groups seem somewhat pessimistic about the GOP’s chances in 2016: A recent conversation with a veteran of GOP presidential campaigns raised this question: Which, if any, of the recent battleground states are likely to become more Republican by 2016? […]
On today’s edition of Coffee and Markets, Brad Jackson and Ben Domenech are joined by Brandon Finnigan to discuss the 2014 Senate election picture, the most interesting toss-up races and if the Republicans will snatch defeat from the jaws of victory.
The New York City Department of Investigation recently examined the integrity of the New York City election process. During the 2013 New York City Mayoral Election, they had undercover investigators deliberately attempt to cast fraudulent write-in ballots in the name of 63 legally ineligible voters. The undercover agents of the DOI* were told to write in the name of fictional candidate “John Test.” The votes were tallied on 61 out of 63 deliberately corrupt ballots.
A certain portion of the blogosphere reads about things like the easy voter fraud and therefore describes the current state of American Democracy as being a terminal failure. They go further and suggest we should just spurn the clever ideas of George Washington and admit that KG III had the whole thing right from Jump Street. I personally think the whole Monarchist Movement has truly gone fishing. The various Kennedy Family by-blows are as close as I ever hope to see America come to being ruled by The Spanish Hapsburgs or the declining end of the Romanov Dynasty. As for American Democracy degenerating, I am not as easily able to dismiss the reactionaries. A voter fraud success rate of 97% is not a positive development. In order to prevent this continued negative outcome, the Congress of the United States of America needs to pass a national Voter ID Law.
In the first post on our House forecasting model for the 2014 election, we estimated that, as of this moment, Republicans are likely to gain five seats in the House of Representatives. That estimate is in line with some others, such as this recent analysis from David Wasserman of the Cook Political Report, who projects […]